January 17, 2023
Consumer sentiment in the U.S. remained low from a historical perspective but continued lifting for the second consecutive month, rising 8% above December and reaching about 4% below a year ago. Current assessments of personal finances surged 16% to its highest reading in eight months on the basis of higher incomes and easing inflation. Although the short-run economic outlook fell modestly from December, the long-run outlook rose 7% to its highest level in nine months and is now 17% below its historical average.
Year-ahead inflation expectations receded for the fourth straight month, falling to 4.0% in January from 4.4% in December. The current reading is the lowest since April 2021 but remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations were little changed from December at 3.0%, again staying within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 17 of the last 18 months. Long-run inflation expectations remain elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. Uncertainty over both inflation expectations measures remains high, and changes in global factors in the months ahead may generate a reversal in recent improvements.
Source: University of Michigan
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