Third monthly increase since March is driven by optimism about UK economy

GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index increased three points to -14 in June. Three measures were up, one was down and one was unchanged in comparison to last month’s announcement..

Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director GfK, says: “Once again we have an improved reading for the Overall Index Score with June showing a three-point improvement bolstered by consumers’ more sympathetic view of the economy for the last year and the 12 months to come. Those measures on the economy registered sharp increases of seven points and six points respectively, and there was a welcome three-point boost in intentions to make major purchases. While June’s reading of -14 is the third month in a row that confidence has increased, the headline score remains negative owing to the difficulties so many have experienced as the unrelenting cost-of-living crisis batters household budgets. Nevertheless, consumer confidence continues its robust long-term upward trend this month, and has recovered significantly since the record low of -49 reached in September 2022. Consumers like financial certainty, and this has to be the cornerstone if we are to see confidence break out into positive territory.”

UK Consumer Confidence Measures – June 2024

The Overall Index Score increased three points to -14 in June. Three measures were up, one was down and one was unchanged in comparison to last month’s announcement.

Personal Financial Situation 

The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year is unchanged at -10; this is five points better than June 2023.

The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months is down three points at +4, which is five points higher than this time last year.

General Economic Situation 

The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is up seven points at -32; this is 22 points higher than in June 2023.

Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months have increased by six points to -11; this is 14 points better than June 2023.

Major Purchase Index 

The Major Purchase Index is up three points to -23; this is two points higher than this month last year.

Savings Index

The Savings Index has decreased five points to +22 in June; this is three points lower than this time last year.

Measuring 50 Years of Consumer Confidence

January 2024 marked 50 years of the UK Consumer Confidence Barometer. There is no other consumer research project with the longevity, rigour and reliability of the Consumer Confidence Barometer. Each month since January 1974, this study has provided insight into how UK consumers feel about their personal finances and the wider economy, as well as the outlook for the next 12 months. Through the winter of discontent, the Falklands War, economic boom and bust, the Brexit vote, and most recently the coronavirus pandemic, CCB has seen many highs and lows over five decades.

The highest value of the Overall Index Score – the headline score – was in January 1978, when it reached +21. It reached +16 twice in 1979 (first in July and again in September). The lowest score recorded was -49 in September 2022, and other lows include -39 in July 2008, during the global financial crisis, and a score of – 35 in March 1990, in the lead-up to the 1990/1991 recession. The largest monthly increase was in May 1993 when the headline score jumped 12 points. There have been seven monthly drops of 10 or more since the survey started, with the largest by far happening during the coronavirus crisis when it dropped 25 points from -9 in mid-March 2020 to -34 at the end of March.

Source: GfK
Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither Karen Audit nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.