UK Consumer Confidence sees big fall in September – down seven points

Key future indicators on personal finances, economy and purchase intentions all sharply lower

GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to -20 in September. All measures were down in comparison to last month’s announcement.

Neil Bellamy, Consumer Insights Director, GfK, says: “Headline consumer confidence has recorded a big fall this month to -20, taking us back to a similar level seen at the beginning of this year. All five measures are down but there are major corrections in the outlook for our personal financial situation for the next 12 months (down nine points), our views on the general economy for the coming year (down 12 points), and the major purchase index (down ten points). These three measures are key forward-looking indicators so, despite stable inflation and the prospect of further cuts in the base interest rate, this is not encouraging news for the UK’s new government. Strong consumer confidence matters because it underpins economic growth and is a significant driver of shoppers’ willingness to spend. Following the withdrawal of the winter fuel payments, and clear warnings of further difficult decisions to come on tax, spending and welfare, consumers are nervously awaiting the Budget decisions on 30th October.”

UK Consumer Confidence Measures – September 2024
The Overall Index Score fell sharply to -20 in September. All measures were down in comparison to last month’s announcement.

Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year is down two points at -9; this is nine points better than September 2023.

The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months is down nine points at -3, which is three points higher than this time last year.

General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is down two points at -37; this is 16 points higher than in September 2023.

Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months are down 12 points at -27; this is two points better than September 2023.

Major Purchase Index
The Major Purchase Index is down ten points to -23; this is five points higher than this month last year.

Savings Index
The Savings Index has decreased ten points to +23; this is the same as this time last year.

————————————————————————

Measuring 50 Years of Consumer Confidence
January 2024 marked 50 years of the UK Consumer Confidence Barometer. There is no other consumer research project with the longevity, rigour and reliability of the Consumer Confidence Barometer. Each month since January 1974, this study has provided insight into how UK consumers feel about their personal finances and the wider economy, as well as the outlook for the next 12 months. Through the winter of discontent, the Falklands War, economic boom and bust, the Brexit vote, and most recently the coronavirus pandemic, CCB has seen many highs and lows over five decades.

The highest value of the Overall Index Score – the headline score – was in January 1978, when it reached +21. It reached +16 twice in 1979 (first in July and again in September). The lowest score recorded was -49 in September 2022, and other lows include -39 in July 2008, during the global financial crisis, and a score of – 35 in March 1990, in the lead-up to the 1990/1991 recession. The largest monthly increase was in May 1993 when the headline score jumped 12 points. There have been seven monthly drops of 10 or more since the survey started, with the largest by far happening during the coronavirus crisis when it dropped 25 points from -9 in mid-March 2020 to -34 at the end of March.

Source: GfK
Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither Karen Audit nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.