South Africa’s Business Cycle Indicators: Leading Indicator Up by 0.6% in September 2023, Coincident Indicator Rises by 0.1%, Lagging Indicator Declines by 0.7%

November 25, 2023

Composite business cycle indicators for South Africa

The composite leading business cycle indicator increased further by 0.6% in September 2023 as increases in six of the nine available component time series outweighed decreases in the remaining three. The largest positive contributors were a widening of the interest rate spread and an increase in South Africa’s US dollar-denominated export commodity price index. The largest negative contributors were decelerations in the six-month smoothed growth rates of real M1 money supply and the number of new passenger vehicles sold.

• The composite coincident business cycle indicator increased by 0.1% in August 2023 due to marginal increases in industrial production, the utilisation of production capacity in the manufacturing sector as well as real retail and new vehicle sales.

• The composite lagging business cycle indicator decreased by 0.7% in August 2023.

Source: South African Reserve Bank
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