November 29, 2022

BIS residential property price statistics, Q2 2022

  • Growth in global real house prices slowed to 2.2% year on year in aggregate in the second quarter of 2022 This reflected a strong increase in nominal terms (+10.6%) – largely offset by the surge in year-on-year consumer price growth rates
  • Real house price developments continued to diverge across the main regions. They continued to increase rapidly in advanced economies (AEs, +5.3% year on year) while emerging market economies (EMEs) saw their first decline (–0.2%) since early 2016.
  • Real house prices surged in Turkey (50%), the United States (9%), Australia, Canada (both 8%) and Japan (7%). They fell by 6% in Brazil and 4% in China and India.
  • In real terms, global house prices now exceed their immediate post-GFC average levels by 27% (40% in the AEs and 18% in the EMEs).

Summary of latest developments

In the second quarter of 2022, global real house prices growth moderated to 2.2% year on year in aggregate. This reflected a strong increase in nominal terms (+10.6%), offset by the rapid acceleration in year-on-year consumer price growth rates (CPIs).

Real house price growth lost some momentum in advanced economies (AEs), at +5.3% (down from 7.9% in Q1 2022) and turned negative in EMEs, at -0.2%, after a 1.7% increase in the previous quarter. The slight fall recorded by EMEs was driven mainly by the Latin American and Asian regions (–3.8% and –3.3% respectively), while real prices surged in central and eastern Europe (+18%).

Country-level data3 show that strong housing inflation was well distributed among AEs, where real residential property prices increased year on year in 75% of the jurisdictions in the second quarter of 2022 – with increases above 5% year on year recorded in one third of the cases. In contrast, house prices fell in 60% of the EMEs, up from less than 50% in Q1 2022

Despite the recent global slowdown, there has been a significant rise in global real residential prices since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Compared with Q4 2019, they have increased by 9% globally, and in particular by 85% in Turkey and 23% in Australia, Canada, and the United States. In contrast, real prices have fallen by 8% in India since the end of 2019

From a longer-term perspective, global house prices now exceed (in real terms) their immediate post-GFC average by 27% (and by 40% and 18% for AEs and EMEs, respectively. Among the G20 economies, real prices have almost doubled since 2010 in Turkey and Canada (+90% in both economies) and they have risen by around 60% in the Germany, India and the United States. At the other end of the scale, they remain well below their post-GFC levels in Italy, by 24%.

Advanced economies

In aggregate for the group of AEs, real residential property prices grew by 5.3% in Q2 2022, down from 7.9% in Q1 2022. They rose vigorously in several jurisdictions, by 9% in the United States, 8% in Australia and Canada, and 7% in Japan. Growth was more moderate in the United Kingdom (+2%) and a 2% decline was recorded in New Zealand.

Prices were up by 1% in the euro area, where developments continued to vary significantly among member states. Strong real house price growth persisted in the Netherlands (+8%) and Portugal (+5%). Prices kept growing somewhat in Germany (+2%) and France (+1%), but fell in Spain (–1%) and Italy (–2%).

Source: Bank for International Settlements
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