August 7, 2023

Year-on-year inflation in the OECD, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined again sharply to 5.7% in June 2023, after 6.5% in May (Figures 1 and 3). All countries but Germany and Japan experienced a decline in June. The number of OECD countries registering double-digit inflation fell to five from nine in May.

Energy inflation in the OECD continued downwards in June, reaching minus 9.6% after minus 5.2% in May. It was negative in 27 OECD countries, still it remained above 10% in Hungary, Colombia and the Czech Republic. OECD food inflation continued to slow, to 10.1% in June 2023 from 10.9% in May. Food inflation remained above 10% in 26 OECD countries.

In June, the decline in OECD inflation less food and energy (core inflation) to 6.6% from 6.9% in May was slightly more pronounced than in previous months. Services inflation, estimated based on information available for 33 OECD countries, decreased to 5.4% in June from 5.7% in May, in year-on-year terms.

Year-on-year inflation in the G7 fell to 3.9% in June 2023 from 4.6% in May. Inflation fell sharply (i.e. by more than 1.0 percentage point) in Italy following a pronounced decline in energy inflation and in the United States where core inflation saw a marked decrease. Inflation also slowed but to a lesser extent in France, the United Kingdom and Canada. By contrast, inflation rose in Germany to 6.4% in June compared with 6.1% in May, after 3 months of decline, driven by an uptick in core inflation and stable energy inflation. Part of this increase stems from a base effect from the 2022 relief measures (the 9-euro public transport ticket and the fuel discount). In Japan, inflation has been broadly stable, hovering around 3.3% since February 2023, while other G7 countries showed a downward trend over this period. Non-food and non-energy items were the main contributors to headline inflation in all G7 countries in June.

In the euro area, year-on-year inflation as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), fell to 5.5% in June 2023, from 6.1% in May.  Energy inflation and food inflation continued to decline, while core inflation increased slightly.Eurostat’s flash estimate for July 2023 points to a further decline in year-on-year inflation in the euro area to 5.3 %. Energy inflation in the euro area is estimated to have further declined in June while core inflation is estimated to have been stable.

In the G20, year-on-year inflation declined to 5.5% in June 2023, from 5.9% in May. In China, year-on-year inflation declined to zero, its lowest level since February 2021. Inflation decreased in South Africa, Brazil, Indonesia and China, but increased in Argentina and India. It was stable in Saudi Arabia.

Source: OECD
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