Second estimate
The second estimate is conducted 85 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, and is based on the most recent data available at that point. Following the first estimate, new information about the state of the Dutch economy continues to pour in, including data on the construction sector, business services, hotels and restaurants, the public sector, the care sector and the financial sector. These data are added and new calculations are carried out.
On average, over the five-year period of 2019-2023, the difference between the final estimate and the first estimate was 0.1 percentage points in absolute terms, but ranged between -0.3 and 0.7 percentage points, both of which occurred in 2021.
Revision of the national accounts
In the second estimate for Q1 2024, the figures reflect the recent revision of the national accounts.
The macroeconomic statistics are revised periodically. Part of this revision involves the introduction of new sources, methods and concepts to ensure optimal alignment between how the Dutch economy is presented with all the underlying statistics, sources and international guidelines on the compilation of macroeconomic statistics. The European Commission has recommended that member states revise their methodology at least every five years, and this revision is the Netherlands’ response to that recommendation.
Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment
With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series for previously published quarters. The revision has also been incorporated into the new series. Furthermore, the revision also changes certain aspects of the way in which the quarterly time series is corrected for the usual seasonal influences. These changes result in more adjustments than usual.
The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rates for 2023 have been revised for Q4, from 0.3 to 0.1 percent; for Q3, from -0.3 to -0.4 percent; for Q2, from -0.4 to 0.0 percent; and for Q1, from -0.4 to -0.3 percent.
Economic contraction in Q1 2023 adjusted to 0.6 percent
Year on year, GDP contracted by 0.6 percent in Q1. In the first estimate, that contraction was 0.7 percent. This upward adjustment is mainly attributable to the trade balance. The overall picture did not change. The decline in the trade balance and investments contributed the most to the contraction.
As part of the revision, all quarterly figures in the period 1995-2024 have been recalculated and this leads to other year-on-year changes.
Annual figures
The annual figures from 1995 to 2023 have also been recalculated following the revision. The data for the revised time series can be found on StatLine. Economic growth in 2023 remains at 0.1 percent. Economic growth in 2022 was calculated to be 5.0 percent, compared with 4.3 percent in the previous estimate.
39 thousand new jobs
The second estimate shows that the number of people in employment or self-employment increased by 39 thousand in Q1 2024 compared to Q4 2023. According to the first estimate, the increase was 42 thousand jobs.
Furthermore, the second estimate for Q1 2024 suggested a year-on-year increase in the number of people in employment or self-employment was 122 thousand, versus 117 thousand according to the first estimate.
Source: CBS
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