Confidence index in Turkey increased by 2.9% in services sector, while decreased 0.1% in retail trade sector in January 2021 compared to the December 2020

Starting from January 2021, the method used in the business tendency surveys for determining enterprises to apply the surveys has been updated. Enterprise’s turnover and sectors’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) value added weights have been started to use in calculations. Detailed methodological information is available in the “Methodological Document On The Major Revision Made In Sectoral Confidence Indices” attached to the press release.

Confidence index increased in services sector while decreased in retail trade and construction sectors

Seasonally adjusted confidence index increased by 2.9% in services sector, while decreased 0.1% in retail trade sector and 5.2% in construction sector in January 2021 compared to the December 2020.

Seasonally adjusted sectoral confidence indices, January 2021

Seasonally adjusted sectoral confidence indices, sub-indices and the rate of changes, January 2021

Services confidence index realized as 101.9

Seasonally adjusted confidence index which was 99.0 for services in December 2020 increased by 2.9% in January 2021 to 101.9. In services sector compared to the previous month, business situation over past three months sub-index increased by 5.4% to 103.0. Demand-turnover over past three months sub-index increased by 1.4% to 98.0 and demand-turnover expectation over next three months sub-index increased by 2.1% to 104.6.

Seasonally adjusted services confidence and tendency indices, January 2021

Retail trade confidence index realized as 108.5

Seasonally adjusted retail trade confidence index decreased by 0.1% in January 2021 to 108.5. In retail trade sector compared to the previous month, business activity-sales over past three months sub-index decreased by 3.7% to 118.8. Current volume of stock sub-index decreased by 1.4% to 90.1 and business activity-sales expectation over next three months sub-index increased by 4.9% to 116.7.

Seasonally adjusted retail trade confidence and tendency indices, January 2021

Construction confidence index realized as 84.2

Seasonally adjusted construction confidence index which was 88.8 in December 2020 decreased by 5.2% in January 2021 to 84.2. In construction sector compared to the previous month, current overall order books sub-index became 75.7 by decreasing 2.5%. Total employment expectation over next three months sub-index decreased by 7.4% to 92.6.

Seasonally adjusted construction confidence and tendency indices, January 2021

In construction sector, 53.1% of the enterprises indicated at least one factor limiting their activities while 46.9% of the enterprises indicated none in January 2021. Among the main factors limiting activities in construction sector; “financial constraints” which was 30.5% in December 2020 realized as 26.3% in January 2021, “insufficient demand” which was 24.9% in December 2020 realized as 22.4% in January 2021 and “other factors” which was 27.5% in December 2020 realized as 30.0% in January 2021.

The next release on this subject will be on February 22, 2021.
________________________________________________________________________________________________

EXPLANATIONS

Sectoral confidence indices can take value between 0 and 200. It indicates an optimistic outlook when the index is above 100, but it indicates a pessimistic outlook when it is below 100.