May 27, 2024
ISM REPORTS ECONOMIC IMPROVEMENT TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2024
Manufacturing Expected to Expand in 2024 at a Slower Pace than Projected in December 2023
Revenue to Increase 2.1%
Capital Expenditures to Increase 1%
Capacity Utilization at 82.8%
Services is Expected to Expand in 2024 at a Slightly Slower Pace than Projected in December 2023
Revenue to Increase 2.9%
Capital Expenditures to Increase 1.4%
Capacity Utilization at 88.6%
(Tempe, AZ) — The U.S. economy will continue to softly expand for the rest of 2024, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the Spring 2024 Semiannual Economic Forecast. Expectations for the remainder of 2024 are similar to those expressed in December 2023, despite continued inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty.
These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Business Survey Committees. The forecast was presented today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, and Anthony S. Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.
Manufacturing Summary
Revenue for 2024 is expected to increase, on average, by 2.1 percent. This is 3.5 percentage points lower than the December 2023 forecast of 5.6 percent, and 1.2 percentage points higher than the 0.9-percentage point year-over-year increase reported for 2023. Forty-four percent of respondents say that revenues for 2024 will increase, on average, 8.6 percent compared to 2023. Fourteen percent say revenues will decrease (12.3 percent, on average), and 42 percent indicate no change. With an operating rate of 82.8 percent and projected increases in capital expenditures (1 percent), prices paid for raw materials (1.9 percent) and employment (0.3 percent) by the end of 2024, the manufacturing sector continues its comeback from the turmoil that began in 2020. “With 12 manufacturing industries expecting revenue growth in 2024 and nine industries expecting employment growth in 2024, panelists forecast that recovery will continue the rest of the year, albeit somewhat softer than originally expected. Sentiment in each industry was generally consistent with performance reports in the April 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®, as well as the fall Semiannual Economic Forecast conducted in December,” says Fiore.
Twelve of 18 industries report projected revenue increases for the rest of 2024, listed in order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Paper Products.
Services Summary
Respondents expect a 2.9-percent net increase in overall revenues, which is 4 percentage points lower than the 6.9-percent increase forecast in December 2023. Thirty-six percent of respondents say that revenues for 2024 will increase, on average, 10.3 percent compared to 2023. Meanwhile, 10 percent expect their revenues to decrease (7.5 percent, on average), and 54 percent indicate no change. “The services sector will continue to grow for the rest of 2024. Services companies are currently operating at 88.6 percent of normal capacity. Supply managers indicate that prices are expected to increase 3.2 percent over the year, reflecting increasing inflation. Employment is projected to increase 0.8 percent. Thirteen industries forecast increased revenues, down from the 16 industries that predicted increases in December 2023,” says Nieves.
Thirteen of 18 industries expect revenue increases in 2024, listed in order: Retail Trade; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Utilities; Information; and Finance & Insurance.
OPERATING RATE
Manufacturing
Purchasing and supply executives report that their companies are operating, on average, at 82.8 percent of normal capacity, 0.2 percentage point lower than the figure reported in December 2023. The 10 industries reporting operating capacity levels above the average rate of 82.8 percent — listed in order — are: Paper Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Wood Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.
Services
Organizations are operating, on average, at 88.6 percent of normal capacity, according to Business Survey Committee respondents. This is 2.1 percentage points higher compared to December 2023. The eight industries operating at capacity levels above the average rate of 88.6 percent — listed in order — are: Educational Services; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; Utilities; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; and Public Administration.
| Operating Rate | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | Services | |||||
| May 2023 | Dec 2023 | May 2024 | May 2023 | Dec 2023 | May 2024 | |
| 90%+ | 41% | 42% | 40% | 69% | 48% | 54% |
| 50% – 89% | 55% | 53% | 57% | 30% | 51% | 45% |
| Below 50% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Overall Average | 82.0% | 83.0% | 82.8% | 91.0% | 86.5% | 88.6% |
PRODUCTION CAPACITY
Manufacturing
Production capacity is expected to increase 2.4 percent in 2024; in December, panelists reported an increase of 0.7 percentage point for 2023 and projected an increase of 7.8 percent this year. Thirty percent of respondents expect capacity increases of, on average, 12.6 percent; 7 percent expect decreases of, on average, 19.7 percent; and 62 percent expect no change. The 12 industries expecting production capacity increases for 2024 — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Paper Products.
| Manufacturing Production Capacity | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| For 2023 | For 2024 | For 2024 | ||||
| Reported Dec 2023 | Magnitude of Change | Predicted Dec 2023 | Magnitude of Change | Predicted May 2024 | Magnitude of Change | |
| Higher | 35% | +9.8% | 44% | +10.5% | 30% | +12.6% |
| Same | 47% | NA | 52% | NA | 62% | NA |
| Lower | 18% | -17.4% | 4% | -22.8% | 8% | -19.7% |
| Net Average | +0.7% | +7.8% | +2.4% | |||
Services
The capacity to produce products or provide services in the services sector is expected to increase 2.6 percent in 2024. This compares to an increase of 3.9 percent reported for 2023 and a December projection of a 4.1-percent increase for this year. Sixteen percent of services respondents expect their capacity for 2024 to increase, on average, 17.6 percent, and 2 percent foresee capacity decreasing, on average, 11.2 percent. Eighty-two percent expect no change in capacity. The 14 industries expecting production capacity increases for 2024 — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; and Finance & Insurance.
| Services Production or Provision Capacity | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| For 2023 | For 2024 | For 2024 | ||||
| Reported Dec 2023 | Magnitude of Change | Predicted Dec 2023 | Magnitude of Change | Predicted May 2024 | Magnitude of Change | |
| Higher | 31% | +14.6% | 47% | +9.3% | 16% | +17.6% |
| Same | 64% | NA | 50% | NA | 82% | NA |
| Lower | 5% | -12.3% | 3% | -9.6% | 2% | -11.2% |
| Net Average | +3.9% | +4.1% | +2.6% | |||
PREDICTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURES — 2024 vs. 2023
Manufacturing
Survey respondents expect a 1-percent increase in capital expenditures in 2024, much lower than the 11.9 percent increase forecast by the panel in December. Twenty-four percent of respondents predict increased (on average, 19.8 percent) capital expenditures in 2024, 14 percent said their capital spending would decrease (on average, 26.2 percent), and 62 percent expect no change. The 10 industries expecting capital expenditure increases for 2024 — listed in order — are: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery.
Services
This year, services purchasing and supply executives expect capital expenditures to increase 1.4 percent compared to 2023. The 25 percent of respondents expecting to spend more predict an average increase of 16 percent, 12 percent anticipate an average decrease of 20.8 percent, and 63 percent expect no change in capital expenditures in 2024. The 10 industries expecting an increase in capital expenditures — listed in order — are: Public Administration; Utilities; Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Educational Services; Construction; and Finance & Insurance.
| Predicted Capital Expenditures 2024 vs. 2023 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | Services | |||||
| Predicted Dec 2023 |
Predicted May 2024 |
Magnitude of Change | Predicted Dec 2023 |
Predicted May 2024 |
Magnitude of Change | |
| Higher | 35% | 24% | +19.8% | 40% | 25% | +16.0% |
| Same | 43% | 62% | NA | 38% | 63% | NA |
| Lower | 22% | 14% | -26.2% | 22% | 12% | -20.8% |
| Net Average | +11.9% | +1.0% | +2.9% | +1.4% | ||
PRICES — Changes Between End of 2023 and May 2024
Manufacturing
In the December forecast, respondents predicted an increase of 3.2 percent in prices paid during the first four months of 2024; they now report prices increased by 1.6 percent. The 45 percent who say their prices are higher now than at the end of 2023 report an average increase of 5.8 percent, while 17 percent reported lower prices (by 6 percent, on average). The remaining 39 percent indicated no change for the period. Seventeen manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid for the first part of 2024, listed in order: Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
Services
Services respondents report that purchases during the first four months of this year cost an average of 2.3 percent more than at the end of 2023. This is 1.4 percentage points less than the 3.7-percent increase predicted in December. Forty-six percent of services respondents report that prices increased, on average, 6.7 percent; 11 percent report price decreases of, on average, 7.2 percent; and 43 percent indicate no change. Fourteen of 18 industries reported an increase in prices paid in the first part of 2024, listed in order: Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; Wholesale Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; and Information.
| Prices — Changes Between End of 2023 and May 2024 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | Services | |||||
| Predicted Dec 2023 |
Reported May 2024 |
Magnitude of Change | Predicted Dec 2023 |
Reported May 2024 |
Magnitude of Change | |
| Higher | 49% | 45% | +5.8% | 61% | 46% | +6.7% |
| Same | 29% | 39% | NA | 27% | 43% | NA |
| Lower | 22% | 16% | -6.0% | 12% | 11% | -7.2% |
| Net Average | +3.2% | +1.6% | +3.7% | +2.3% | ||
PRICES — Predicted Changes Between End of 2023 and End of 2024
Manufacturing
Survey respondents expect a year-over-year, net-average prices increase of 1.9 percent for 2024. With respondents reporting price increases of 1.6 percent through April 2024, prices are projected to increase slightly for the rest of the year. Forty-seven percent of respondents project prices to increase, on average, 6.1 percent for the full year, 20 percent anticipate a decrease (5.2 percent, on average), and 33 percent expect no change. The 15 industries expect price increases for all of 2024, listed in order are: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Petroleum & Coal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Machinery.
Services
This year, services respondents expect prices to increase, on average, 3.2 percent compared to the end of 2023. With respondents reporting an increase of 2.3 percent through April 2024, prices are projected to increase over the rest of the year. Forty-eight of respondents anticipate increases of, on average, 7.2 percent; 7 percent expect decreases of, on average, 5 percent; and 45 percent do not expect prices to change. Fifteen of 18 industries project price increases for all of 2024, listed in order: Public Administration; Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Information; and Other Services.
| Prices — Predicted Changes Between End of 2023 and End of 2024 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | Services | |||||
| Predicted Dec 2023 |
Predicted May 2024 |
Magnitude of Change | Predicted Dec 2023 |
Predicted May 2024 |
Magnitude of Change | |
| Higher | 52% | 47% | +6.1% | 59% | 48% | +7.2% |
| Same | 24% | 33% | NA | 27% | 45% | NA |
| Lower | 24% | 20% | -5.2% | 14% | 7% | -5.0% |
| Net Average | +3.3% | +1.9% | +3.4% | +3.2% | ||
EMPLOYMENT
Employment — Predicted Changes Between End of 2023 and End of 2024
Manufacturing
ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents forecast that sector employment in 2024 will increase 0.3 percentage point year over year. Twenty-three percent of respondents expect employment to be, on average, 7.4 percent higher; 15 percent predict employment to decrease, on average, 8.7 percent; and 62 percent expect employment levels to be unchanged. The nine industries projecting employment growth during 2024 — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products.
Services
Sector employment will increase 0.8 percent in 2024, according to the forecast of ISM’s Services Business Survey Committee respondents. For the remaining months of the year, 25 percent expect employment to increase, on average, 5.2 percent; 8 percent anticipate employment to decrease, on average, 7 percent; and 67 percent expect no change in employment levels. The 13 industries anticipating increases in employment — listed in order — are: Other Services; Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Mining; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Wholesale Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.
| Employment — Predicted Changes Between End of 2023 and End of 2024 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | Services | |||||
| Predicted for 2024 Dec 2023 |
Predicted May 2024 |
Magnitude of Change |
Predicted for 2024 Dec 2023 |
Predicted May 2024 |
Magnitude of Change |
|
| Higher | 33% | 23% | +7.4% | 29% | 25% | +5.2% |
| Same | 50% | 62% | NA | 55% | 67% | NA |
| Lower | 17% | 15% | -8.7% | 16% | 8% | -7.0% |
| Net Average | +2.0% | +0.3% | +0.8% | +0.8% | ||
BUSINESS REVENUES
Business Revenues Comparison — 2024 vs. 2023
Manufacturing
Increased revenues are expected this year, as purchasing and supply management executives predict an overall net increase of 2.1 percent compared to 2023. This is 3.5 percentage points lower than the 5.6-percent increase forecast in December, and 1.2 percentage points higher than the 0.9-percentage point year-over-year increase reported for 2023. Forty-four percent of respondents say that revenues for 2024 will increase, on average, 8.6 percent; 14 percent say their revenues will decrease, on average, 12.3 percent; and 42 percent forecast no change. The 12 manufacturing industries expecting increases in revenue in 2024 — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Paper Products.
| Manufacturing Business Revenue | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 vs. 2022 | 2024 vs. 2023 | |||||
| Reported Dec 2023 | % Change | Predicted Dec 2023 | % Change | Predicted May 2024 | % Change | |
| Higher | 41% | +9.9% | 58% | +9.2% | 44% | +8.6% |
| Same | 31% | NA | 29% | NA | 42% | NA |
| Lower | 28% | -12.5% | 13% | -10.3% | 14% | -12.3% |
| Net Average | +0.9% | +5.6% | +2.1% | |||
Services
This year, services purchasing and supply management executives predict a net increase of 2.9 percent in sector business revenue compared to 2023. This is 4 percentage points lower than the 6.9-percent increase forecast in December, and 1.3 percentage points lower than the 4.2-percent increase reported for 2023. Thirty-six percent of respondents indicate revenues for 2024 will increase, on average, 10.3 percent; 10 percent say their revenues will decrease, on average, 7.5 percent; and 54 percent expect no change. Thirteen of 18 services industries project revenue increases in 2024, listed in order: Retail Trade; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Utilities; Information; and Finance & Insurance.
Source: ISM
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