March 11, 2024
In Q42023, Japan’s GDP expanded by 0.1% quarter over quarter, as opposed to flash statistics showing a 0.1% decline and a 0.8% contraction in Q3. Thanks in large part to a sharp higher adjustment of capital expenditure (2.0% against the preliminary print and Q3 figure of a 0.1% loss, and market consensus of a 2.5% rise), the economy just missed recession as markets had anticipated a 0.3% growth. Additionally, net trade had a positive contribution (0.2 percentage points, unchanged from the flash report), with exports expanding more strongly than imports (1.7% vs. 1.0%; 2.6% vs. 0.9% in Q2). Meanwhile, private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of the economy, shrank for the third straight quarter (-0.3% vs the initial reading of a 0.2% drop and after a 0.3% fall in Q3), due to elevated cost pressure and persistent headwinds at home. Also, government spending fell more than initially anticipated (-0.2% vs -0.1% in flash data, after a 0.3% rise in Q3), as did public investment (-0.8% vs -0.7% in the first estimate and after a 1.0% decrease in Q3).
Source: Trading Economics
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