“The unchanged inflation rate can be explained by the fact that falling electricity prices doesn’t contribute as much as before,” says Caroline Neander, statistician at Statistics Sweden.

• The interest rates for household’s mortgages rose and contributed with 2.6 percentage points to the annual inflation rate according to CPI.
• Electricity prices slightly rose in October but were 27.7 percent lower than 12 months ago.
• Prices of recreation and culture continued to rise and contributed 1.3 percentage points to the inflation rate in October.
• The annual inflation rate according to CPIF excluding energy decreased from 6.9 percent in September to 6.1 percent in October.

Lower fuel prices

The CPI increased by 0.2 percent from September to October. In the corresponding period a year ago, prices increased by the same rate.

The rise in the monthly change in October was mainly due to the higher interest expenses for household’s mortgages and a small increase in the price of electricity prices, which contributed to increased housing costs. The prices for recreation and culture also rose.

The price increases were offset by decreased prices on fuel. In October, the price on accommodation services also fell.

The table below shows changes on a monthly basis and contributions to the CPI based on the goods and services that had the greatest impact on the CPI in October 2023. The results are presented by COICOP category. COICOP refers to the United Nations classification of household consumption expenditure.

Inflation rate unchanged in October

The inflation rate according to the CPI, that is, the change in the CPI from the same month last year, was 6.5 percent in October 2023. This is unchanged from September, when the inflation rate also was 6.5 percent.

The contributions to the inflation rate in October mostly came from higher housing costs, which was mainly affected by interest rates for household’s mortgages and actual rentals for housing. Food prices have increased by 6.7 percent compared to October 2022. Clothing prices have also increased since the corresponding month last year.

There have been a wide range of price increases in recreation and culture over the past 12 months, which among other things includes prices for package holidays, which has increased by 13.4 percent. The prices for visiting hotels and restaurants have likewise risen. The prices of miscellaneous goods and services have also increased.

The increase was offset by the fact that electricity prices have fallen by 27.7 percent since October 2022, which made a negative contribution equivalent to 1.1 percentage points to the inflation rate. Fuel prices have also fallen and are almost 7.9 percent lower than last year.

The inflation rate according to CPIF, which unlike CPI is not affected by changes in mortgage interest rates, was 4,2 percent in October. The corresponding rate for September was 4.0 percent.

The inflation rate calculated excluding energy products (CPIF-XE) was 6.1 percent in October, which is a decrease compared to September when it was 6.9 percent.

Different measures of inflation

Statistics Sweden calculates different inflation measures for different purposes. The CPIF is the Riksbank’s target variable, while CPI is the measure used for purposes of compensation. The CPIF includes the same goods and services as CPI. The difference between the CPI and the CPIF is that the latter measure holds interest rates for household’s mortgages constant. As a consequence, thereof, the effect of changed interest rates for household’s mortgages is only captured by the CPI and not the CPIF.

Additional to the CPI and the CPIF, the HICP is also calculated. The HICP is a harmonized measure of inflation used within the EU cooperation. Another index that is calculated each month is CPIF-XE (the CPIF excluding energy products) which is often used as a measure of underlying inflation.