June 23, 2023
South African Reserve Bank
Composite business cycle indicators for South Africa
The composite leading business cycle indicator decreased for a third consecutive month by 1.0% in April 2023. Seven of the ten available component time series decreased, while the remaining three increased. The largest negative contributors were a narrowing of the interest rate spread and a deterioration in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index. The positive contributors were accelerations in both the six-month smoothed growth rate of job advertisement space and real M1 money supply.
• The composite coincident business cycle indicator increased by 1.0% in March 2023,largely due to an increase in the industrial production index.
• The composite lagging business cycle indicator increased by 0.3% in March 2023.
Source: South African Reserve Bank
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