December 30, 2022
Economic Experts Survey: Europe Less Well Equipped to Meet Future Economic Policy Challenges (Q4 2022)
In Q4 2022, Europe, South America, and Northern and Central Africa, in particular, are rated significantly more negatively in terms of their ability to cope with economic policy challenges in the future. This picture can also be observed in the assessment of the performance of governments in these regions. This contrasts with North and Central America, large parts of Asia, and Eastern and Western Africa, where both economic
These are the findings of the Economic Experts Survey (EES), a global survey of economic experts conducted jointly by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Institute for Economic Policy (IWP) on a quarterly basis.
The map shows the regional average of two questions: “How do you rate your country’s current economic policy?” and “How well does your country’s current economic policy address the challenges of the future?” The questions asked for a comparison with the previous quarter, with response options ranging from −100 (“worse”) to +100 (“better”). The data is first averaged at country level and then within 18 world regions.
Pessimistic View of Economic Policy in Europe, South America, and North Africa
In a global comparison, the assessments of economic experts on current economic policy differ greatly. In Europe, a worse assessment can be observed across all regions compared with Q3 2022. In contrast, the countries in Asia, with the exception of Central Asia, have a more positive assessment of economic policy than in the previous quarter. Experts in Eastern, Central, and Western Africa are equally confident, while in contrast, economic policy in Northern Africa is rated more pessimistically. With regard to the assessments in the American regions, the picture in North and Central America is more positive than in the previous quarter, whereas the assessments in South America are more negative.
The figure shows the regional average of the questions “How do you rate your country’s current economic policy?” (left panel) and “How well does your country’s current economic policy address the challenges of the future?” (right panel). The question asked for a comparison with the previous quarter, with response options ranging from −100 (“worse”) to +100 (“better”). The data is first averaged at country level and then within 18 world regions.
Economic Policy Not Well Suited to Meeting Future Challenges
The assessment of economic policy is made up in equal parts of the experts’ assessments of current economic policy and their assessment of economic policy with regard to future challenges.
A comparison of the two dimensions shows that current economic policy is rated better on average than preparation for future challenges. The declines in the regions with a negative assessment of economic policy can be attributed above all to the management of future challenges. In the European regions in particular, it is clear that the economic policy pursued is not seen as suitable for overcoming future challenges. Here, a decline can be seen in both dimensions. In the other regions, the assessment of the ability to meet future challenges is more subdued than that of current economic policy compared with the previous quarter.
The map shows the regional average of two questions: “How do you rate the performance of your country’s current government?” and “How do you rate the stability of your country’s current political situation?” The questions asked for a comparison with the previous quarter, with possible answers ranging from −100 (“worse”) to +100 (“better”). The data is first averaged at country level and then within 18 world regions.
Great Heterogeneity in the Assessment of the Political Situation
Overall, the economic experts assess the political climate as better than in the previous quarter. This is particularly true of the assessments from Eastern, Central, and Western Africa and Southeast Asia, and to a lesser extent also from Western and Southern Asia, Oceania, and North and Central America. Assessments in Northern, Southern, and Western Europe also improved again compared with the previous quarter. In Central and Eastern Asia, Eastern Europe, and South America, there was a decline in the assessment of the political situation.
The map shows the regional average of two questions: “How do you rate the performance of your country’s current government?” and “How do you rate the stability of your country’s current political situation?” The questions asked for a comparison with the previous quarter, with possible answers ranging from −100 (“worse”) to +100 (“better”). The data is first averaged at country level and then within 18 world regions.
Current Government Performance Criticized, Progress in Political Stability
The assessment of the political climate is made up in equal parts of the experts’ assessments of government performance and political stability. While political stability is perceived as improved compared with the previous quarter, the assessments of government performance are critical overall.
In particular, the governments in Northern and Southern Africa are rated significantly worse than in the previous quarter. In addition, governments in South America continue to be viewed very skeptically, and economic experts in Central Asia are also not convinced. In Southern, Central, Western, and Eastern Europe, approval of the government’s work is falling compared with Q3 2022.
With the exception of Eastern and Central Asia, the experts are positive about the development of political stability compared with the previous quarter. The largest increases are seen in Western and Eastern Africa, as well as in Southeast Asia.
Source: ifo Institute
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